Key Points
- The first 18 months of President Donald Trump’s second term have been marked by policy-driven economic shocks, including a tougher immigration crackdown and higher tariffs.
- Reuters reports that an unexpected war with Iran has also pushed up oil prices and threatened global supply chains.
- The broader US economy has held up better than many economists expected, despite those disruptions.
- Trump’s campaign promises to cut prices, boost factory jobs and improve living standards for the middle class have not yet been fully realised.
- The midterm elections are little more than three months away, giving the economic picture immediate political significance.
Washington (Evening Washington News) July 27, 2026 – Reuters, reporting from Washington, says the first 18 months of President Donald Trump’s second term have produced a series of policy-driven shocks, but also a US economy that has so far proven more resilient than many economists anticipated.
What has driven the economic shocks?
As reported by Reuters, the shocks have been linked to Trump’s immigration crackdown and the higher tariffs he promised during his 2024 campaign.
Reuters also says an unanticipated war with Iran has added pressure by lifting oil prices and threatening global supply chains.
Taken together, those factors have created a more difficult environment for trade, business planning and consumer costs.
Has the US economy held up?
Reuters says the US economy overall has withstood the policy changes and the Middle East war better than many economists expected.
That resilience suggests the economy has not broken under the pressure of tariffs, tighter immigration rules and geopolitical disruption.
Even so, Reuters frames the period as one where stability has coexisted with unresolved weaknesses.
Have Trump’s economic promises been met?
According to Reuters, Trump’s pledge to lower prices, expand factory jobs and improve life for the middle class has not yet materialised. That gap between campaign promises and visible results is central to the current economic debate.
The timing matters because the midterm elections are just over three months away, increasing scrutiny on whether voters feel any benefit from the administration’s policies.
Why does the Iran war matter economically?
Reuters says the unexpected war with Iran has lifted oil prices and raised concerns about global supply chains.
Higher oil prices can feed through into transport, production and consumer costs, which can complicate efforts to bring down inflation.
Supply chain pressure can also affect imports, manufacturing and the broader cost of doing business.
How does this affect voters?
For voters, the immediate issue is not just whether the economy is growing, but whether everyday costs are easing and wages are keeping pace.
Reuters’ account suggests the economy has remained functional, but the political test is whether households can feel the benefit of that resilience.
If prices remain sticky or factory job gains do not arrive, Trump’s economic message may face growing pressure ahead of the midterms.
Background of this development
Trump entered his second term with a clear economic pitch built around tariffs, tighter immigration controls and promises to strengthen domestic industry.
Reuters’ report places the current moment in the context of those campaign commitments, alongside an external shock from the war with Iran that was not part of the original plan. The result is a mixed picture: less economic damage than feared, but also less progress than promised.
Prediction for the audience
For households, workers and businesses, this development could mean continued uncertainty over prices, trade costs and supply conditions in the months ahead.
If tariffs and higher oil prices persist, consumers may continue to face pressure even if the wider economy avoids a sharp downturn. For middle-class voters in particular, the key question is whether the administration can convert resilience into visible gains before the midterms.
